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AMC-LahtiAMC-LahtiAtmospheric Modelling Centre

Research at AMC-Lahti

One problem, three disciplines.

The atmosphere is measured at a few thousand scattered stations, but the questions we have to answer — what is in the air, where it came from, what it will do next — need answers everywhere, every hour, for every pollutant. Closing that gap, from sparse and noisy data to a complete and physically consistent picture, is the single problem that our atmospheric scientists, applied mathematicians and machine-learning researchers work on together.

Atmospheric scienceMathematics of inverse problemsMachine learning

Why these three belong together

Our co-leader, Michael Boy, holds a chair in both atmospheric science and applied mathematics — which is the centre in miniature. The same prediction problem is attacked from three sides, and the sides depend on each other.

Atmospheric science

Builds the mechanistic understanding and the process models — which reactions turn gases into particles, how the boundary layer moves them.

Mathematics

Formalises “recover the cause from limited measurements” as an inverse problem, and quantifies how much the answer can be trusted.

Machine learning

Makes those models fast enough and fine-grained enough to run at city-block resolution across a whole continent.

01 — Atmospheric chemistry & air quality

How do invisible precursor gases become the particles we breathe — and where does a city’s pollution actually come from?

How we work

The centre develops SOSAA, a one-dimensional process model that couples boundary-layer meteorology, gas-phase chemistry and aerosol dynamics. It follows biogenic volatile organic compounds through oxidation all the way to new-particle formation, and recent work pushes automated autoxidation chemistry directly into the model. Coupled with the FLEXPART trajectory model, SOSAA traces measured pollution back along the wind to its sources.

What it produced

  • A Lagrangian reconstruction of severe Beijing haze that separates local emissions from long-range transport. Atmospheric Environment, 2025.
  • Ozone source apportionment and an associated health-risk assessment for eastern China. Environment International, 2026.
  • A contribution to a Science study showing that urban secondary organic aerosol forms a distinct chemical regime. Science, 2025.

02 — Mathematics of inverse problems

Can you recover the cause from incomplete, noisy measurements — and prove how far the answer can be trusted?

How we work

Bayesian inversion and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling turn an ill-posed problem into a probability distribution, so an estimate always comes with quantified uncertainty (Haario). Wave-scattering theory establishes when — and how — a medium can be reconstructed from boundary data (Blåsten). Industrial computational fluid dynamics with shape and control optimization (Hämäläinen) and discrete-element modelling of granular flow (Dubey) carry the same recover-from-data thinking into flows and transport.

What it produced

  • A method to recover a (1+1)-dimensional wave equation from a single white-noise boundary measurement — about the least data a reconstruction can use. Inverse Problems, 2026.
  • A statistical comparison of reconstruction methods for the one-dimensional inverse wave problem, benchmarking what actually works on imperfect data. Agenorwoth & Blåsten, 2026.

03 — Machine learning for atmospheric prediction

Can a network do in seconds what a stiff chemistry solver — or a supercomputer — needs hours for, and at higher resolution?

How we work

Attention-based neural-ODE emulators (ChemNNE, SPIN-ODE) replace the stiff chemistry solvers buried inside atmospheric models. Cross-resolution and topography-aware vision transformers (CRAN-PM, TopoFlow) fuse coarse global meteorology with fine local data to predict pollution at one-kilometre scale. Diffusion-based generative models super-resolve climate fields where deterministic downscaling plateaus (Toropainen).

TopoFlow

A PM2.5 RMSE of 9.71 µg/m³: about 13% better than the strongest AI baseline and 71–80% better than operational forecasts, holding across four pollutants and 12–96 h lead times.

arXiv 2602.16821

CRAN-PM

Generates a 29-million-pixel, 1 km European air-quality map in 1.8 s on a single GPU, cutting RMSE 4.7% at +1 h and 10.7% at +3 h versus the best single-scale baseline.

arXiv 2603.11725